(154d) Kaya Identity analysis for Central Asia

Currently, there is a global trend of climate change and accelerating temperature increase. To deal with it, on December 12, 2015, 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement, aiming to reduce the global temperature rise to 1.5℃ by 2050. One of the ways of achieving this goal is to reduce CO2 emissions, which is directly related to oil production. However, the economies of some countries are based on this sector's development, and Central Asia is a good example. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan already implemented strategies of shifting towards low-carbon sources of energy, and this paper is aimed at analyzing the progress and proposing further sustainable development policies.

Kaya Identity will be decomposed to determine factors affecting CO2 emissions. For this, the population, GDP per capita, energy intensity, and carbon intensity of each Central Asian country will be summarised and presented for the time period from 1990 to 2014. Then, two regression models, such as a simple linear regression model (SLRM) and a multiple linear regression model (MLRM) will be implemented to evaluate the extent of each factor's influence on CO2 emissions in all five countries and the region at large. Finally, these data will be used to propose possible strategies for CO2 emissions reduction and climate change mitigation for all Central Asian countries.