(517m) Stoachastic Techno-Economic Analysis for an Integrated Strategy to Coproduce Jet Fuel Range Alkenes and Pentanediols

Cellulosic biofuels is an attractive renewable fuels, because the raw material, lignocellulosic biomass, one of the most plentiful resource and there is no concern about carbon dioxide emission. However the problem in the use of biofuel is a high price due to high feedstock cost and technological immaturity [1, 2]. In addition, the recent drop in oil prices also opens up a price gap between biofuels and fossil fuels [3]. To overcome this bottleneck, a new approach to process economics through simultaneous production of valuable chemicals has been proposed [1, 4]. Recently, an integrated strategy coproducing jet fuel range alkenes (JFA) and pentanediols (1,2-pentanediol and 1,5-pentanediol; PeDs) from cellulose and hemicellulose fraction of lignocellulosic biomass is proposed, the fuel price assumed by deterministic techno-economic analysis is comparable to current biofuel price. Although the result of deterministic analysis shows that the integrated strategy is economic feasible, an uncertainty in these major economic parameters could lead uncertainty in the minimum selling price (MSP). An uncertainty analysis introducing Monte Carlo simulation can be used to assume more reliable production cost and MSP.

We performed the stochastic analysis for the integrated strategy coproducing JFA and PeDs from lignocellulosic biomass based on the deterministic techno-economic results by Monte Carlo simulation using @Risk software. Major cost parameters which have large impact on the MSP of JFA were identified by deterministic techno-economic analysis, and then uncertain input variables were sampled from distributions of the parameters assumed based on the previous price data reported in literature. Next, Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iteration was performed to show probability distribution of the MSP of JFA.

Compared to the deterministic analysis, the stochastic analysis can provide probabilistic results on economic feasibility of the integrated strategy when the market conditions are varied. And it is also used as a reliable information for risk-averse investment. Although this study only considered the price uncertainties, we will consider the technical uncertainties such as conversion and selectivity of the catalytic reactions provide more reliable information to the decision makers.

Literature cited:

[1] Huang K, Won W, Barnett KJ, Brentzel ZJ, Alonso DM, Huber GW, et al. Improving economics of lignocellulosic biofuels: An integrated strategy for coproducing 1, 5-pentanediol and ethanol. Applied Energy. 2018;213:585-94.

[2] AlternativeFuelDataCenter. Alternative fuels report. 2017.

[3] Macrotrends. Crude Oil Prices. 2016.

[4] Bond JQ, Upadhye AA, Olcay H, Tompsett GA, Jae J, Xing R, et al. Production of renewable jet fuel range alkanes and commodity chemicals from integrated catalytic processing of biomass. Energy & Environmental Science. 2014;7:1500-23.