(364i) Development of a Resilience Model for the Analysis of Process Systems at the Early Design Stage

Resilience addresses a system's ability to survive significant and unexpected deviation and then recover. Hence the assessment of a process system’s resilient response to beyond design basis events is a valuable concept in process design. Resilience is now a widely discussed concept yet no methodology has been agreed upon to comprehend and quantify resilient performance, seriously limiting its application. There is a need for an analysis framework that is relevant and applicable to a wide variety of systems, introducing a standardised analysis for comprehension and comparison of resilience. This paper details the development of a novel and accessible model for the assessment and scaling of process system resilience in the early design stage, a period when the opportunity to introduce resilience into the system is high. The model combines analyses of resilient design with susceptibility to high-impact events. This provides the opportunity to determine if further, investment toward resilience is necessary. The developed model consists of 3 sections: 1) an index-based quantification of resilient design (in turn giving design consequences for improved resilience), 2) vulnerability to beyond design basis events, 3) potential for severe safety, economic and environmental consequences. From applying the model to example systems it is clear that traditional design methodologies do not extend well to give a resilient effect; proving the need for specified resilience analysis. The analysis has also allowed for cost-benefit assessment for design improvements towards resilience. This model presents an effective, useful, and necessary tool for the introduction of resilience as a design concept used throughout industry.