(524d) Outlook for Flexible CO2 Capture Technologies for Meeting Grid Needs and Climate Goals

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) removal technologies, applied to point sources or ambient air, are an important option to consider as the world strives for climate stabilization and environmental sustainability. Point-source CO₂ removal at fossil-fueled power plants is a key application of this technology, but questions remain about whether or not the CO₂ capture technologies can compete economically in a future electric grid with high shares low-cost variable generation (VG) from wind and solar power. Grids with high VG shares will increasingly value flexibility, making it critical to assess how flexible CO₂ capture technologies complement and compete with other grid technologies, including generation, transmission, storage, and responsive demand.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Research Projects Agency for Energy (ARPA-E) created the Flexible CO₂ Capture and Sequestration (FLECCS) program to perform such an assessment. It takes the unique approach of supporting 12 technology development teams to design flexible CCS concepts while supporting 2 modeling teams charged with evaluating the deployment and operational potential of each technology using grid planning and operations models. FLECCS technologies range from rapid-response post-combustion CO₂ capture systems, to myriad concepts incorporating energy arbitrage, to systems hybridized with direct air capture (DAC). The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with the University of Wyoming is one of two teams integrating cost and performance data for each FLECCS technology into grid models to evaluate their future deployment potential. The other modeling team is housed within Princeton University.

This presentation demonstrates how the NREL-led team implements a multimodel, multiscale approach to grid modeling using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (CEM) linked to the PLEXOS production-cost model (PCM). ReEDS projects long-term investment of electricity generation, transmission, and storage technologies in the contiguous United States for several decades into the future. A future ReEDS capacity mix can then be input to PLEXOS, which is capable of modeling electricity dispatch at higher time resolution (hourly) and with more detailed representations of plant operation. For the FLECCS program, both models have been enhanced to represent FLECCS technologies including their unique operating modes and performance characteristics.

FLECCS technologies are evaluated for future deployment and operation in grid scenarios of varying CO₂ price ($150–$300/tCO₂ in 2050) and favorability towards FLECCS deployment (e.g., low/high gas price, low/high cost of competing technologies). Comparing results across technologies reveals themes for what combinations of system design, key performance metrics, cost, and grid conditions are conducive to deploying FLECCS technologies. This exercise helps guide CO₂ capture technology development and more broadly demonstrates the merits of concurrently developing new technologies while actively analyzing their long-term deployment potential.