(160f) Assessing the Implications of Recycling Targets and Scale-up of Post-Consumer Plastics Recycling Infrastructure: A Reverse Supply Chain Optimization Approach

As part of a broader initiative aimed at fostering sustainable waste management practices and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions associated with waste disposal, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently established a national recycling objective: achieving a 50% recycling rate for municipal solid waste (MSW), including plastics, by 2050. This ambitious target is bolstered by increasing demand for commitments from brands to use recycled materials, creating both pressure and opportunities for advancing plastics recycling efforts. However, reaching these goals necessitates the development of a robust post-consumer plastics reverse supply chain infrastructure, surpassing current capacities. Achieving such a feat requires meticulous projections and analyses of the energy, economic, and environmental ramifications associated with transitioning towards a nearly closed-loop plastics economy. The main aim of this study is to explore the expansion required in recycling capacity, the pace at which this capacity needs to increase, optimal locations for additional capacity, and which materials would render recycling economically viable and environmentally advantageous, considering impact metrics that extend beyond carbon emissions and fossil energy use. Addressing these inquiries necessitates the implementation of a comprehensive regional or national system-wide reverse supply chain modeling, design, and optimization approach. The study will utilize the 4P (Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform) framework, developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), to formulate scenarios aimed at increasing recycling rates, leveraging the EPA PET target and commitments to recycled content as influential factors. Through 4P, valuable insights will be garnered regarding post-consumer plastics quality, distribution, available recycling technologies, associated costs, and material balance specifications. Although initially focused on PET, the 4P framework can be expanded to encompass other plastics and recycling streams. These insights will be integrated into the reverse logistics modeling and optimization tool (RELOG) developed by Argonne National Laboratory. This integration will facilitate decisions on the optimal location, timing, estimated capacities, and technology types for constructing plastics recycling plants, as well as determining the routes for post-consumer plastics. The analysis will encompass an assessment of costs, energy consumption, carbon emissions, and other environmental impacts across the life cycle of scaling up the recycling infrastructure.