(228g) Ammonia As an Energy Carrier: Cost and Emission in the Global Ammonia Supply Chain

Ammonia is expected to play an important role as an effective energy carrier for the global decarbonization agenda. Its inherent molecular properties, existing infrastructure for fertilizer production, and correlated high technology readiness levels position ammonia as a promising candidate for medium- to long-distance energy transport. However, transitioning existing ammonia supply chains to low-carbon alternatives presents multifaceted challenges. The challenges include sustainable system scaling, large-scale production, cost-effective storage and distribution networks, regional differences in fossil and renewable energy availability, and regional specific hydrogen demand. To avoid pitfalls like "emissions lock-in" and ensure a seamless shift away from conventional fossil-based supply chains, this work designs a future ammonia supply chain that considers 1) current and potential ammonia supply and demand volumes specified by regions and countries; 2) levelized costs of ammonia production and distribution, varied by technologies, regions, and supply chain routes; 3) life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the total supply chain; and 4) current and forthcoming global ammonia supply chain with government projections. These factors lead to different supply chain optimization conclusions, which are also influenced by each region’s environmental-economic policy options (e.g. carbon constraints and clean hydrogen support schemes).

The objective of this research is to conduct a comprehensive techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) on potential global ammonia supply chain configurations and to present a supply chain optimization model that can reflect the above factors. The optimization model aims to optimize the total cost and carbon emissions inside the supply chain system. Furthermore, appropriate constraints including regional primary energy availability, hydrogen demand, and carbon policies are included. Based on this modeling methodology, this work determines the most feasible supply chains for each supplying and demanding region, to advise strategic decision-making by both industry stakeholders and governments, and to provide insights into the implications of decarbonization efforts on a global scale. Our analysis provides a groundwork for supply chain optimization.