(371r) Optimization and Uncertainty Management of Wind Power Generation Using Natural Gas Hydrogen Mixture

Wind Power generation has increased tremendously over the past years surpassing traditional hydroelectric power generation in US [1]. Current trends predict an increase in off-shore and land-based wind power generation capacity from 140 GW in 2023 to 224 GW in 2030 and more than 400 GW in 2050 [2]. Due to the uncertainty in wind power generation arising from weather and climate conditions, it is very difficult to maintain a constant base power generation and frequency needed for power grid connection. This leads to lower base power generation than the potential capacity of the system. It has been proposed to integrate wind power generators with hydrogen electrolyzers to stabilize and store the excess power generation [3].

In this study, we examine the uncertainty problem of increasing the base power generation from wind power generators by integrating them with gas based generators using a natural gas-hydrogen (H₂-NG) based mixture as fuel. We formulate it as a two-step dynamic optimization problem where in the first step, we formulate the maximization of base power generation (P_b) subject to uncertain wind power (P_w) augmented by power from gas generator (P_g) and the equations of pipeline transport modeled with probabilistic chance constraint formulation and solved using stochastic finite volume method [4]. In the second step, we minimize the emission from gas generators by mixing hydrogen into natural gas and burning (H₂-NG) mixtures to provide the optimal base generator load (P_b^*) obtained in first step subject to the heterogeneous gas transport equations [5]. We impose operation constraints such as pressure on withdrawal and gas supply limits to obtain practically feasible solutions.

References:

[1] U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2024

[2] Wind Vision, Department of Energy, https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/wind-vision

[3] Wind-to-Hydrogen Project, NREL https://www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/wind-to-hydrogen.html

[4] Kazi, Saif R., et al. "Stochastic Finite Volume Method for Uncertainty Management in Gas Pipeline Network Flows." arXiv preprint arXiv:2403.18124 (2024)

[5] Kazi, Saif R., et al. "Modeling and optimization of steady flow of natural gas and hydrogen mixtures in pipeline networks." International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 54 (2024): 14-24.