(573h) Techno-Economic Analysis of Green Hydrogen Production in South Korea and Saudi Arabia, Using Monte Carlo Simulation Based on Meteorological Data

Because of the ongoing climate crisis, hydrogen is increasingly recognized as a viable, sustainable energy solution. In particular, green hydrogen, produced using renewable energy sources, is considered a promising alternative to fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the inherent regional and seasonal variability of renewable energy sources directly impacts the production of green hydrogen, affecting its availability and cost-effectiveness on a regional and monthly basis. This study analyzed the levelized cost of green hydrogen (LCOH) in South Korea and Saudi Arabia, employing Monte Carlo simulations incorporating monthly meteorological data. This approach enabled an evaluation of how the variability and regional disparities in LCOH influenced the economic viability of hydrogen trade.

This research employed Monte Carlo simulations to assess the variability of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) due to solar energy fluctuations. Regionally averaged monthly data on global horizontal irradiance(GHI) and temperature from the National Solar Radiation Database NREL are used to model weather variability. The simulations estimated monthly solar power generation capacities and hydrogen production volumes. An economic analysis formula is then applied to these estimates, calculating the LCOH and presenting it in a probability distribution to highlight monthly cost variability.

The analysis showed that South Korea exhibited higher LCOH values than Saudi Arabia, with significant monthly differences in hydrogen production quantity and LCOH due to seasonal weather changes. In contrast, Saudi Arabia maintained relatively stable hydrogen production quantity and LCOH values. This suggested that the variability of weather conditions could significantly impact the production quantity and costs of green hydrogen.

This research forecasted the variability of green hydrogen production volumes and production costs in the two countries, offering suitable data to evaluate the economic feasibility of international green hydrogen trade and the transition to a green hydrogen economy. Additionally, this study found the importance of considering monthly weather variability for stable green hydrogen production and economic viability improvement. It was also expected to contribute to establishing variability management strategies for hydrogen production and import.