(96b) Prospective Impact Analysis Combining Integrated Assessment Modeling and Life Cycle Assessment for Alternative Industrial Heat Sources.

The U.S. government's commitment to achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 aligns seamlessly with the global climate mitigation objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement. The overarching goal is to limit the average temperature increase to 1.5 °C or less by 2100, compared to preindustrial levels. To realize this ambitious domestic mid-century target, there is an imperative need for the rapid adoption of energy-efficient technologies and the decarbonization of pivotal sectors such as power and transportation. This involves embracing electrification, fuel switching, and the expansion of variable renewable energy sources and storage technologies. Furthermore, an increased emphasis on electrification is crucial for both the buildings and industrial sectors.

While the power and transportation sectors, contributing 29% and 25% to total U.S. national GHG emissions, have extensively outlined and modeled their decarbonization strategies, meeting the 2035 and 2050 targets demands a concerted effort due to the substantial scale of the power sector and the heterogeneous nature of the transport sector. The industrial sector, responsible for 23% of total U.S. GHG emissions, poses a unique challenge due to its activities that are challenging to electrify. Addressing these activities requires the exploration of technologies that are either less understood or have not yet been scaled. Finding innovative solutions in this realm is crucial for achieving the broader climate goals.

Approach/Activities:

Emerging technologies call for the application of forward-looking life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies. These methodologies enable the comprehensive consideration of technology scaling and process enhancements, including learning by doing. Additionally, the future system context in which these technologies are envisioned to operate holds equal significance in many instances. Background scenarios systematically generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) proficiently incorporate the evolving dynamics of the energy-economy-land-climate system. These IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, enhancing the comparability of prospective LCAs utilizing various IAMs.

In this context, we present an open-source framework for prospective LCA, known as the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON). LiAISON facilitates the examination of non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background, encompassing a spectrum of midpoint and resource-use metrics.

Results/Lessons Learned:

The LiAISON framework has been used to assess the environmental impact of various hydrogen production methods in the United States. This involved combining data from two integrated assessment models, IMAGE and GCAM, to enable life cycle assessment (LCA) across different scenarios. The framework is currently applied to a case study involving industrial heat supply in the US. Several technologies and strategies play a role in decarbonizing industrial heat. Electrification, where traditional fossil fuel-based heating systems are replaced with electric alternatives powered by renewable energy, is one approach. Another method involves the use of green hydrogen produced through electrolysis using renewable energy sources. Additionally, improving energy efficiency in industrial processes helps reduce overall heat demand, contributing to the decarbonization goal. The study not only analyzes LCA results with temporal and geospatial details for two technologies but also aims to create a foundational framework that can be extended to incorporate other scenarios generated by integrated assessment models and U.S. open-source life cycle inventory databases.