(52r) The Full-Cycle Evolution Mechanism of Security Accidents in Petrochemical Plants Based on Biological Immune Theory

Abstract: Security accidents occur frequently in petrochemical plants. The evolution mechanism of security accidents can comprehensively and systematically explain the cause and process of accident evolution. However, there is little research on the evolution mechanism of security accidents in petrochemical plants. Therefore, this study is the first time to introduce the biological immune theory into the research on the evolution mechanism of security accidents, based on the similar evolutionary characteristics of biological immune system and security accident system. The security accident immune system is established to show the real full-cycle evolution mechanism of security accidents vividly and intuitively. It is found that the strength of threat elements and protection elements and the interaction degree among them fluctuated with the evolution period. The struggle among threat elements and protection elements is bidirectional selectivity and persistence. In any evolution period, when the comprehensive destruction capacity of the system is greater than zero, the security accident will continue to evolve to the next period. An illustrative case demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed method in engineering applications.