(135a) Practical Qualitative and Quantitative Models in Ccus Risk Assessment
AIChE Spring Meeting and Global Congress on Process Safety
2023
2023 Spring Meeting and 19th Global Congress on Process Safety
Topical 15: The Energy Transition
Modeling for Energy Transition
Wednesday, March 15, 2023 - 11:05am to 11:30am
There are a wide range of possible stakeholders involved in CO2 storage projects, all of whom will require assurance that the risks are being effectively managed throughout the lifecycle. These will include the operating company, partners, shareholders, regulators, the public, insurance companies, etc. All these stakeholders will have differing information requirements for the level and depth of information provided, and each project will have to take this into account. The key steps of any risk management plan (e.g. ISO 31000) require to be met, and met in a proportionate way, taking into account the amount and certainty of information available and the end-userâs needs.
Whilst there are undoubtedly unique aspects to the risks from geological storage of CO2, several of the existing tools that have been proven in process safety applications have been successfully repurposed in recent regulatory submissions to allow qualitative and quantitative information to be obtained and used for decision-making.
The presentation will present several approaches that can be applied to assist with decision making during the lifetime of a project.
- HAZID to assist with the identification of scenarios of concern, which can be coupled with
- Risk matrices to allow for an estimation of the risk level, together with its acceptability.
- Qualitative bowties to evaluate and communicate (internally and externally) the risk controls present.
- A Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) style approach has been found to be useful, when combined with bowties, to allow scenario comparison.
- Use of event trees to provide an indication of leakage risks from legacy wells.
The presentation will present the methods employed, together with a discussion of the possible applications and also limitations to each approach. It is concluded that a range of approaches is necessary, considering the available data, the uncertainties present and the requirements of end-users.
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