(40ai) An Adaptive Analysis Method of Risk Propagation Path for Petrochemical Processes

Hazardous petrochemical accidents are a major concern for companies and families alike. These accidents often cause the leakage of toxic chemicals or a fire and explosion, which will have a huge negative impact on the society, economy, and environment. To prevent the occurrence and evolution of petrochemical accidents, risk propagation path should be effectively and reasonably analyzed. Therefore, an adaptive analysis method is proposed in this paper. The propagation paths are adaptively traced based on the complex network and community structure. To illustrate its validity, a diesel hydrogenation unit is selected as the case study. Compared with the traditional methods (e.g. Bow-tie model, Bayesian network, Petri network), the proposed adaptive analysis method can quantify the process casual reasoning and avoid the subjectivity and uncertainty.