(46b) Computational Modeling for Risk Analysis to Failure and Stability of the DAM

The present study aims to demonstrate modern risk analysis solutions based on computer technology and equation modeling to effectively predict dam infiltration problems, their consequent collapses and effectively assist vulnerability studies. In the 2D/3D modeling studies through the PLAXIS software, data of different characteristics can be presented: the permeability and the hydraulic resistance of the soil change with the moisture content, the special properties of unsaturated soils. Risk Analysis for operations with adverse weather conditions and maintenance needs can also be added to the analysis, which provides an adequate analysis in the choice of maintenance models and methods. Theoretical studies and manual input data are compared, with data parameterized by recognized software and used in investigations of dam collapses as occurred in Brazil, in the cities of Brumadinho and Mariana. The result is a technical and effective basis for quantitative and numerical analyzes to determine the best intervention alternatives in operation and maintenance, with a view to choosing the lowest and/or most controlled risks.