Challenges On Adaptation to a Changing Climate: Wind Speed and Wave Height As Case Studies

Natural hazards, such as wind and waves cause significant losses every year. The design of structures for these hazards is primarily concerned with extreme events. Typically the magnitudes of these extreme events are extrapolated from relatively short data sets and contain various limitations and uncertainties that are typically not accounted for. As current projections suggest the frequency and intensity of some environmental extremes will be modified due to a changing climate, uncertainties related to climate projections also need to be accounted for. Current practices are based on stationary stochastic process however accounting for all uncertainties requires the consideration of the non-stationary nature of these environmental loads. This paper examines uncertainty in the estimation of extreme environmental loads, including those uncertainties inferred by a changing climate. The paper defines the problem and subsequently examines observed wind speed and discusses wave height modeling to characterize the underlying stationary and/or non-stationary stochastic processes. When deducing changes in the properties of extreme wind for design, this is a difficult task. For this work, extreme wind events for nearly 70 years from the Washington, DC wind climate from the three major airports (Dulles, Reagan, Baltimore/Washington). Additionally wave height model data from NOAA buoys at selected locations are analyzed and data limitations are discussed. Possible adaptation strategies are outlined such as understanding losses and their relationship to environmental conditions, developing probability-based prediction techniques and modifying design codes and standards. Research needs in linking climate science and engineering design in the long-term are outlaid.