(92g) Development of a Mathematical Model to Predict Fecal Coliform Levels in the Mobile Bay Area

Bacterial contamination is a serious problem in the Alabama oyster industry. Specifically among these is the fecal coliform bacterium. This bacterium is an indicator of sewage-polluted waters. The state of Alabama currently uses a predictive model based on the stage of the Mobile River to predict these bacteria levels. This research's purpose was to develop a mathematical model based on several environmental factors. Little success was found with this problem due to poor data correlation. However, upon taking a predictive approach, a model was developed that showed a decent fit of data. Further analysis using the technique of partial least squares will be used for future investigations.