(529e) An Integrated Spatiotemporal Modelling, Design and Optimization Framework for the Large-Scale Deployment of CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage

One of the main stumbling blocks to realize large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is the huge upfront costs involved. In addition, the usual geologically-dispersed nature of the large number of CO₂ point-sources and sinks calls for a perspective that is beyond ?matching each source with the nearest sink' and requires a holistic-systems perspective. Furthermore, since the CO₂ emission mitigation targets are expected to gradually increase over the next several decades, it is important that the CCS network is developed in harmony with the mitigation targets while ensuring that the investments are made optimally (as and when/where they are necessary) to minimising the entire lifecycle costs. Hence, in this contribution we have proposed a comprehensive optimization framework, that is spatially and temporally explicit, to design the least-cost CCS networks and their optimal evolution with time over the next four decades (i.e., until 2050). Such a long-term perspective also helps to optimally place the future fossil fuel-based plants (e.g., power plants and H2 production plants). While spatially explicit CCS networks design is not entirely new, optimization based studies are rather limited and dynamic-model based optimization studies are even more limited in the literature. In this respect, our framework is novel and helps minimize the overall costs.

We have then demonstrated the applicability and usefulness of our approach with a real case study by applying it to design CCS networks for the Netherlands. A recent study (Konda et. al., 2010) has shown that CCS must be an integral part of the Dutch CO₂ mitigation portfolio to comply with the local and regional (i.e., EU level) CO₂ mitigation targets. Further, the availability of a number of large-scale CO₂ point-sources and large storage capacity makes CCS an attractive CO₂ mitigation option for the Netherlands. Potential CO₂ sources considered include 110 power and industrial sources (including refineries and chemical plants). Altogether, these sources emit 80 MT of CO₂ annually and account for more than 50% of Dutch annual emissions. Potential sinks include depleted gas reservoirs (including the Groningen fields) onshore and offshore, enhanced coal-bed methane recovery (ECBM) sites and saline aquifers. Within the Dutch context, depleted oil reservoirs' estimated storage capacity is rather limited and hence they are not considered. Further, due to the uncertainty associated with the availability of the sinks within the Netherlands, we have also considered the possibility of exporting CO₂ to the sinks that are beyond the Dutch borders. These include storage sites in the southern North Sea basin of the UK and the Norwegian part of the North Sea. These are relatively large structures and hence are likely preferred candidates over the smaller fields located in the Netherlands. Further uncertainty analysis is carried out using a scenario-based approach ? these include scenarios that are policy-driven with varying commitments. CO₂ is transported by pipelines (both onshore and offshore) and pipeline economies of scale is explicitly accounted for (by piecewise linearization) in our models.

In addition to the Dutch case study, our presentation will encompass a UK CCS case study as well, in which we have proposed a clustered-deployment of CCS networks within the South-East of UK.

Disclaimer: Results/comments are of the authors' and do not necessarily represent the views of the associated organizations/institutions.

Acknowledgements: Authors would like to thank Shell for their financial support. This work benefited from the views of Fred Hage (Linde, The Netherlands).

References: Konda, N. V. S. N. M., Shah, N., Kramer, G.J., and Brandon, Nigel P., ?Dutch Hydrogen Economy: A Multi-billion Dollar Question? Reflections from an Optimization Framework,? to be presented at PSE Asia 2010, Singapore, July 2010.