(579e) Supply Chain Planning In Oil & Gas Industry: Energy and Clean Technologies Under Uncertainty

Conventional planning strategies are complicated to develop because the future events are uncertain. For a supply chain of oil & gas industry is difficult to planning new production and transport networks because oil & gas reserves, energy generation technologies and availability of electric public net is very uncertain at long term. This work shows then behavior future of decision process in investments of new supplier energy systems when three elements act: 1) expansion in oil crude and gas production 2) dynamic of growing in electric public network 3) imperative use of clean technologies to generation of energy. In this work the topological connectivity among generation and consume point is a manipulated variable and this effect is evaluated on taking decisions process. For this propose a representative chain supply of oil & gas industry composed by around 300 oil fields and 33 transport terminals is represented by a MILP model in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System). This model is used to an optimization of several future scenarios. The analysis of results shows that decisions in new investments of clean technologies are too sensible with dynamics of expansion in oil crude and gas production and growing in electric public network. Several solutions can obtain according to supply chain connectivity where clean technologies to energy generation is economically viable if the supply chain will have generation and consumes points poorly connected.