(572g) Industrial Sectors and Integrated Solutions (ISIS) - A Techno–Economic and Multi-Pollutant Modeling Framework for Comprehensive Regulatory Analysis

Industrial
Sectors and Integrated solutions (ISIS) - A Techno?Economic and Multi-Pollutant
Modeling Framework for Comprehensive Regulatory Analysis

Nabanita Modak¹,
Gurbakhash Bhander², Jacky Rosati², Alex Macpherson³,
Elineth Torres³

¹Oak Ridge Institute of Science
and Education

²APPCD, NRMRL, Office of Research
and Development, US EPA

³Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, US EPA

In
2004, based on recommendations made by the National Research Council (NRC), the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decided to develop integrated
assessment techniques to monitor and manage air quality for the protection of
the environment. The NRC recommendations and the EPA response provided the
foundation to develop ?multi-pollutant and sector-based analyses and approaches?
(EPA Documents, 2012) to manage air quality. However, an appropriate
mathematical modeling framework was required to facilitate the required
analyses to support this new approach to air quality management. After careful
consideration of data needs, EPA decided to initiate development of the Industrial
Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model.

ISIS
is a multi-sector, multi-product, dynamic linear modeling framework that evaluates
the economic and environmental impacts of emissions reduction strategies for
multiple air pollutants. It is primarily a techno-economic model that considers
several plant-level economic and technical factors such as the type of
emissions units, production capacity, location, cost of production, and applicable
emission controls. The model analyzes and evaluates both environmental
and economic performances with and without policy constraints. Thus,
it is essentially an optimization tool that helps policymakers identify
cost-effective regulations for criteria and hazardous air pollutants that could
potentially offer some attractive solutions to the industrial sectors.

ISIS
was initially used to analyze holistic multi-pollutant options for the cement
industry. Currently, EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) in
collaboration with Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) is
expanding the ISIS modeling framework to include the pulp and paper and iron
and steel sectors.

This paper discusses ISIS
model's capabilities, basic framework, and modeling flexibilities. The paper
also elucidates how the design and implementation of the model successfully
address the substantial benefits and challenges of multi-pollutant and
sector-based analyses and approaches. ISIS is coded in General Algebraic
Modeling Systems (GAMS) language. The input data for the model include production
costs, fuel type and intensity, emission intensity, elasticity of demand,
discount rate, escalation rate, economic life of a plant, emission abatement
technologies, recycled products, import, and export. All
the data are organized into a Microsoft Excel and Access database. Based upon
user specifications, the model extracts input data from the database and pre-processes
it to obtain suitable input parameters for the model equations. Once the data
have been pre-processed, ISIS uses a solver application (from GAMS) to
determine the optimal levels of production, imports, exports and controls
required to meet the market demand and emission constraints, while maximizing
total surplus. From the illustration of the output data, users would be able to
identify optimal emission reduction strategies that are cost-effective and
protective of the environment.