(658f) A Stochastic Techno-Economic Model for Quantifying the Economic Costs of Cellulosic Bioenergy Pathways in the Northeast U.S

New York State has established a Clean Energy Standard that requires 50% of its electricity to be derived from renewable resources by 2030. The closing of substantial nuclear power capacity in the near future is expected to create additional demand for renewable baseload power in the interim. Upstate New York is characterized by large tracts of unproductive former pasture and cropland on which shrub willow has been demonstrated as a potential cellulosic bioenergy feedstock that has the additional potential to rebuild soil carbon via net carbon sequestration. Shrub willow is used as a feedstock for baseload heat and power at small commercial-scale projects throughout New York State. Researchers at SUNY College of Environmental Science & Forestry have developed a stochastic techno-economic analysis model of shrub willow plantations in the U.S. Northeast to quantify the economic feasibility of the biomass as a bioenergy feedstock. This research, which is being funded by the USDA’s Biomass Research and Development Initiative, is part of a broader project that will determine the economic and environmental feasibility of multiple forms of cellulosic bioenergy in the region in pursuit of state energy goals (Massachusetts has also implemented ambitious renewable electricity targets). This proposed oral presentation within the Biomass Availability and Logistics technology area will provide an overview of the project's energy and environmental motivations, the design and building of the stochastic techno-economic model as well as results, and the model’s potential applications in regions outside of the U.S. Northeast.