(440f) Multiscale Integration for Resilient Energy Systems Under Disruption

Disruptions to the energy sector have increased in both frequency and impact, causing massive losses of life and livelihood. It is critical that energy systems are designed to withstand unforeseen disturbances to ensure a steady and reliable energy supply in the long-term [1]. However, the upfront investment required to design resilient energy systems can be prohibitive, and the return on this investment can be uncertain because future disruptions are often unforeseen in both timing and impact (“unknown-unknown” disruptions) [2]. Therefore, a systematic methodology for analyzing potential future scenarios and the impact of various design decisions on post-disruption system behavior is needed.

In this work, we expand upon the existing multiscale framework for energy system design [3] by introducing sources of uncertainty at multiple operational scales to identify the decision variables that have the greatest impact on system performance during disruptions. Specifically, 1) a system-wide disruption is introduced at a specific time during the planning horizon which targets a specific node or arc within the supply chain, and 2) probability distributions are introduced for equipment reliability and realizations of potential process design are generated through Monte Carlo sampling. The post-disruption performance of the supply chain is then correlated with decision variables to determine the critical design choices to invest in upfront. The proposed methodology can aid in process and supply chain design simultaneously while balancing current economic investment with expected future performance. To illustrate the methodology, we present a study on a distributed biomass value chain for small-scale energy carrier production.

References

1. El-Halwagi, Mahmoud M., et al. "Disaster-resilient design of manufacturing facilities through process integration: principal strategies, perspectives, and research challenges." Frontiers in Sustainability 1 (2020): 595961.
2. Ivanov, Dmitry. "Supply chain risks, disruptions, and ripple effect." Introduction to Supply Chain Resilience: Management, Modelling, Technology. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. 1-28.
3. Chrisandina, N. J., et al. "Multi-scale integration for enhanced resilience of sustainable energy supply chains: Perspectives and challenges." Computers & Chemical Engineering (2022): 107891.