(496a) Analysis of Economic Impacts and Emissions across Energy Exporters, Importers and the Shipping Industry for Alternative Low Carbon Energy Supply Chain Scenarios

A low-emissions supply chain of energy carriers at a feasible cost is necessary to ensure a sustainable energy transition. The transition to the future energy system results from many inter-connected decisions taken by the different stakeholders involved in the energy supply chain. This work considers an energy carrier supply chain consisting of an exporter, an importer, and the shipping. Previous studies in literature which analyze the environmental and economic performance of energy carrier processing focus on one section in the supply chain; either production or shipping. Life cycle assessment of the potential energy carriers focus only on the environmental impact of the supply chain. This work proposes a systematic analysis of the entire supply chain to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of the decisions made by the importer on shipping and production, and on the system overall. Starting from the base case in which Japan imports liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar to satisfy a defined demand for energy, the study considers the transition in Japan towards low-emissions energy system through either capturing CO₂ and shipping it back to Qatar for storage, or through shifting to alternative energy carriers such as H₂ and H₂-based fuels. The analysis determines the required sizes of production, shipping, and energy extraction to satisfy the energy demand. The costs on the different stakeholders are determined based on the capital and operating costs of production, shipping, and energy extraction, and considering the depreciation cost of the existing assets that will become invaluable. The different cases are assessed based on the corresponding CO₂ reduction cost of the entire system and the impact of the decisions on the stakeholders.