(219a) The Changing Dynamics of Olefin Supply and Demand

Ethylene and propylene are the two key building blocks of the petrochemical industry. However, ethylene has historically reigned supreme and consequently the industry evolved around steam cracking technology designed to maximize production of ethylene, with propylene and the other building blocks, butadiene and the aromatics, only coming along as by-products. But, as key propylene derivatives have grown rapidly over the last tens years, in fact outpacing the growth of ethylene derivatives, a vexing dilemma is facing the industry ? propylene is booming on the demand side, but on the supply side it is relegated to by-product status with its fortunes linked to the vagaries of the ethylene supply/demand situation.

This presentation will review the historical, current and forecast supply/demand situation for ethylene and propylene with an eye towards identifying which of the world's regions will provide opportunities for employing new and evolving ?on-purpose? ethylene and propylene technologies. In addition to the market outlook, this presentation will also look at the pro's and con's for the various on-purpose technologies including petroleum-based approaches (e.g., propane dehydro, olefin metathesis, olefin cracking, and optimized FCC processes), coal-based, gas-based and even renewable-based approaches.