(10a) Future Role and Characteristics of the Fischer-Tropsch Technology

In the past, the development of the FT technology took many years and hundreds of millions of dollars were spent by companies such as Sasol, Shell, Exxon, Conoco, Syntroleum, Rentech, etc.

The traditional approach was the development of the FT technology oriented towards large plants (i.e., in excess of 30 000 bpd, which limited the number of players and opportunities in this field.

Today, the price of oil is in the $80's per barrel and it is generally agreed that the days where the oil price is consistently below the $50's are over.

Following the higher oil price, the FT development over the past few years has been oriented towards smaller commercial plants and on non-slurry bed reactors. Currently, the FT technology is profitable at scales much smaller than before. Plants of 500 to 1000 bpd are now economically feasible, depending upon its location and application.

In the author's opinion, the technological monopoly of the traditional FT players is over. This ?new? FT technology will allow smaller companies to enter the FT field, including those using non-traditional sources of carbon like biomass and municipal waste.

It is envisaged that during the next decade the expansion of the FT industry will include a large number of small to medium size FT plants, flexibly designed for specific applications.

The lowering of the FT plants size greatly increases the number of potential opportunities in the US. The strategies for the plants operation, catalyst maintenance, FT primary products transformation and handling, IBL designs, will have to be modified accordingly.