(148a) Reliability Modeling for Utilities Projects – Scouting Phase

A scouting study to establish feasibility of co-gen installation in a Shell Downstream site as replacement to the existing steam & power generation facilities, was conducted by Shell Global Solutions in collaboration with site staff. The main goals of this study were to ensure:

? Compliance with upcoming IPPC Emissions Regulations (current and potential future legislation)

? Improvement of Utilities / Steam balance and reliability

? Improvement of Energy Efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction

The study intended to provide a clear basis for steam & power generation facilities related to project decision-making with particular focus on the implementation of a co-gen unit, taking into account the above issues and proposing realistic options to mitigate them in a cost-effective and robust way. This presentation focuses on the use of reliability modeling to compare the reliability aspect of the various options, in particular, the ability of the new system to meet future high-pressure steam and power demands. Inputs to the model included steam and power producer capacities and prioritized user demands, anticipated unplanned failures, scheduled maintenance, and conditional operations (i.e., HRSG steam supply down when GT down). The models were used to determine overall steam and power availability (the percentage of time that the system is capable of meeting the demand capacity), as well as the average deficit per outage, average duration per outage, and the expected distributions of both the deficit and duration of outages for each of the options examined. These results were then used in a weighted decision matrix of all the project's parameters of interest (energy efficiency, CAPEX, reliability, and overall economics) to rank the various options.