(118c) Enhancing Credibility of Effects Modeling for High-Consequence Loss Events At Natural Gas Transportation Pipelines in Brazil

Enhancing
credibility of effects modeling for high-consequence loss events at natural gas
transportation pipelines in Brazil

TRANSPETRO has been
contracting quantitative risk analysis for natural gas pipelines and their
associated installations as a legal and internal requirement. These studies have
been carried out by a series of consultants which estimate the magnitude of
possible damage using different software available in the market. This fact led
to a variety of results based on the premises adopted by consultants (most of
them depending on the risk analyst) and differences regarding the peculiarities
of mathematical models.

As there was, in several cases,
inconsistency amongst results, mostly when tabulating results of similar
pipelines which presented discrepant outcomes, the main concern was related to the
credibility of results.

TRANSPETRO team, mainly
field personnel, must have confidence on these data, not only to carry out preventive
actions inside vulnerable area, but also to be aware of these ranges in case of
a real emergency, thus providing evacuation and escaping actions, as necessary.

Based on this scenario, TRANSPETRO's Natural Gas Division has invested in
purchasing a Consequence Analysis software in order to
model the effects for high-consequence loss events at natural gas
transportation pipelines in Brazil
as an effort to obtain more consistent and reliable results.

As per the above
description, this paper aims to present results and benefits of the practical
usage of consequence modeling information in risk management at Natural Gas
Division.