(46ae) Comparative Consequence Analysis Between LNG Import and Export Terminals through the Use of PHAST and GIS

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the natural gas consumption in the US was 1,726 billion cubic feet in January 2013, and the demand has been increasing steadily around the world as natural gas becomes the fuel of choice for electric power providers.  In order to meet this demand, the US economic interest was focused on the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import terminals installation.  However, since 2009, changes in domestic shale production and other commercial changes, the focus in the US has shifted from the construction and operation of LNG import terminals to the creation of new export terminals in pursuit of exporting LNG.  Based on this shifting focus, risk assessments for LNG terminals have also shifted towards potential hazards caused by flammable and cryogenic characteristics of LNG such as vapor cloud, flash fires, pool fires and Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion.  Potential hazards associated with LNG export terminals during liquefaction and storing processes require more in-depth study.

The implementation of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling plays an important role in identifying the contrasting consequences of incidents associated with potential scenarios at LNG export terminals.  It is intended to determine the exclusion zones for these scenarios through the utilization of CFD in order to estimate the areas where people, property, or the environment would be more severely affected.  Additionally, this project seeks to generate high accuracy consequence predictions by including the implementation of a Geographic Information System (GIS) which will allow the use of geo-spatial factors.  This computational approach will help to develop a more robust analysis, which will predict the consequences of an incident.  Not only will GIS facilitate the integration of topographical information into the model, but it will also provide a significant input for the emergency mitigation aspect.  The location of emergency response personnel would be incorporated, and the time of response would be assessed.  Consequently, a wider number of variables would facilitate the performance of the consequence analysis as realistically as achievable.  The main goal of this project is the combination of these two computational tools (CFD and GIS) to fill a gap between the consequence estimation of LNG catastrophic events and the final representation of the results.