(57bv) Handling Uncertainty in LOPA and SIF Design
AIChE Spring Meeting and Global Congress on Process Safety
2017
2017 Spring Meeting and 13th Global Congress on Process Safety
Global Congress on Process Safety
GCPS Poster Session
Monday, March 27, 2017 - 5:00pm to 7:00pm
This paper investigates and highlights the sources of such uncertainties in LOPA and SIF reliability analysis. In particular, the quality of the data used as input parameters to LOPA and reliability models has a large effect on the accuracy of the results. These parameters include failure rates, conditional modifiers, beta factors for common cause failures, and proof test coverage factors. Available data for these parameters can be sparse and may not be representative of the conditions in which the SIF is applied. Where the confidence intervals of the data are available, these can be incorporated into the calculations to reach a more conservative result. Alternatively, a safety factor can be applied to try and capture all the uncertainties. In this approach, the PFDavg calculated by LOPA is reduced by the safety factor to give a more stringent target PFDavg for the SIF design to meet. These methods for handling uncertainty are critically reviewed in this paper.
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