(54aj) Study on Cause-Consequence Analysis Method Based on Reliability Theory

In order to solve the practical application problems including ambiguous target system selection, confusion logical relationship of link event and unclear basic data sources, in cause and consequence analysis method, based on the reliability theory of human and machine in the system reliability analysis, took motor overheat event as an example, from the point of " safety control for the occurrence and development of electric motor overheat and fire event ", determined the "motor overheating safety control system" for the target system. By researching and analyzing the function of the target system, the reliability diagram of the target system is obtained, which determined the logical relationship of the event. According to the reliability theory, the probability of each event is investigated, and the thermal risk assessment diagram of the motor is obtained. The evaluation results show that the equal risk line is a straight line in the logarithmic coordinate, which is the critical line of acceptable risk. The research of quantitative analysis details based on reliability theory, can improve the operability and application effect of cause-consequence analysis method, and is helpful to the promotion and application.