(54bq) Application of Bayesian Networks in Emergency Response Analysis of Typical Leakage Accidents

With the agglomeration development of chemical industry, chemical industrial park has become the mainstream direction for the development of chemical industry in the future, and plays an irreplaceable role in the global economy development. Due to the relative centralization of enterprise layout in the chemical industry park, the occurrence of accidents can lead to catastrophic domino effect. In the control and management of accidents, accident prevention is important, but rapid and effective emergency response of the chemical industry park after accidents also plays an important role in reducing accident losses and controlling the expansion of accidents. The completeness of emergency resources in chemical industry park is one of the important influencing factors of emergency response speed and quality. In recent years, Bayesian network has been widely used in quantitative risk assessment and accident consequence analysis. Although the method has been applied in emergency response analysis, it has not been used to analyze the impact of emergency response on accident development in different accident stages.

The completeness degree of the equipment of the main emergency materials and emergency personnel, which are important components of emergency resources, are selected as the indicators of emergency response capacity. In order to analyze the impact of different emergency resources on the accident consequence in emergencies, development trend of emergencies under different situations of emergency response was studied based on Bayesian network. The Bayesian network model from the beginning to the consequences of the accident was established for a typical leak accident selected. The nodes of emergency response were added at different stages of the accident in the model on the basis of the analysis of influence factors of emergency response, such as the preparation of emergency materials, the consummation degree of emergency organization and etc. The effects of different emergency response processes on accident consequence were analyzed when emergency material and emergency personnel are variously equipped respectively or simultaneously at different stages.

The results can provide a quantitative analysis basis for the establishment of the index system of emergency resources in the chemical industry park, and realize the scientific equipment of emergency resources. It can also guide the emergency command to recombine the most necessary emergency materials and make reasonable personnel arrangements according to the characteristics of the accident, and make quick decisions and command in order to effectively respond to emergencies.