Analysis of European OIL and Gas Industry Accidents By Statistical Modelling of Human and Organisational Factors

Few would argue process safety approaches developed and implemented over the past 20-30 years have enabled us to improve the design basis of our facilities. Yet we still see major incidents occurring at a steady rate each year.

While traditional approaches to risk management may be appropriate as a basis for design, they are not so helpful in support of operations management where decisions continuously take place each day and at all levels of the organization that impact risk. The scenarios used in the design are simple and static, and the calculation of risk is rigorous and complex, generating results which seem credible and complete. But the real world of plant operations is neither simple nor static. Deviations to risk control systems, changing equipment status, hazards introduced through maintenance and repair work, and human and environmental factors can initiate or escalate events. Indeed, it’s the dynamic nature of risk that makes it difficult to connect the performance of safety systems and processes to operational reality.

Petrotechnics recently completed a survey of the state of process safety and risk management in the process industries. Seventy percent of respondents reported a gap between how process safety management is intended and reality. Only six percent indicated they were up-to-date on safety critical maintenance.

On top of this, companies have a wealth of data which could help to manage this seemingly chaotic world, but that data is trapped in silos within their organizations making it very difficult to utilize in supporting real-time decisions.

What is needed to support Operations is a different approach to risk management which is more pragmatic: simple in concept and able to be informed by real-time events. A common currency of risk enables everyone to understand and assess risk by the same criteria and see its cumulative impact and make better operational decisions and proactively intervene to prevent major accidents.

The frontline and leadership can benefit from tools to identify, predict and manage risk and activity on a day-to-day basis.

The current digitalisation of the industry means companies have an opportunity for a clearer understanding of risk to reduce incidents and journey towards sustainable production and Operational Excellence. In particular, the promise of big data in process safety could provide an early warning system that looks at potential signals and trends in facility operations data to make major accident hazard risk exposure visible, prominent and available in real-time.

In fact, big data in process safety can help deliver what we all want; effective process safety that keeps people safe and the plant running efficiently.

This paper will present three projects whereby major international oil, gas, and chemical operators are leveraging a new approach to process safety and operational risk management to achieve safer, more sustainable operations.