(55cl) Events Report Database Analysis for SHE/PSM Programs Improvements

Incident databases contain records of events that have occurred in a petrochemical facility during recent years. The most of chemical industries report databases are filled with accident valuable data (frequency and severity). Harnessing data mining to explore incident databases, it was used data mining to analyze the incidents database of the studied plant. Inferent approaches are ineffective for low frequency, high consequence events because of their rarity. Given this information limitation, this work uses database analyses to forecast incident frequencies, their relevant causes, equipment involved, and their possible consequences, in specific petrochemical plants.

Databases information analysis, also help to avoid future accidents, thereby reducing the risk. More specifically, this study presents dynamic analyses of incidents in a petrochemical plant ubicated in Mamonal industrial park, in Cartagena- Colombia. Differences in the chemical-specific predictions with the overall predictions are demonstrated. Furthermore, value theory is used for consequence of rare events by formulating distributions for events over a threshold value. Finally, the accidents number is used to estimate the capital at risk within an industry utilizing the frequency and loss-severity distributions.

In conclusion, it was recommended to update de maintenance program (predictive, preventive and corrective) in cases of abnormal changes in production rates, comparing the current production levels, with the analyzed plant production forecast. Also, it was suggested to improve the report culture, due to gaps founded regarding to events classification.