(7a) Analysis of Risk Due to Compound Extreme Events
AIChE Spring Meeting and Global Congress on Process Safety
2019
2019 Spring Meeting and 15th Global Congress on Process Safety
Global Congress on Process Safety
Extreme Weather and Other External Events
Monday, April 1, 2019 - 10:30am to 11:00am
Often hazard risk assessments focus on one factor rather than compound, multiple forcing mechanisms. It is possible that extreme event analysis in a univariate context may underestimate probabilities and impacts of extreme events. In this study, a new framework addresses multivariate analysis of risk from compound hazards. Observations and simulations are used to identify expected frequencies of chance extreme events forced via connected individual events. The framework emphasizes the statistical dependence of multiple physical variables that contribute to extreme compound events when individual events are not extreme. Finally, the use of a compound hazard model as input to a full performance-based methodology that includes structural, damage, and loss analyses is defined.
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