Decarbonizing ASEAN By 2050: From the Lens of a Hydrogen Economy

Decarbonizing ASEAN is a challenge due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuels and rapidly growing energy demand. Hydrogen is widely believed to be a promising vector for decarbonization. Understanding the evolution of a hydrogen economy is a complex optimization problem that depends on a variety of factors due to following reasons – (1) temporal variation in cost of H₂ production technologies, (2) varying emissions reduction capabilities of different H₂ production technologies, (3) process efficiencies, (4) resource availabilities [1-2] (5) projected renewable electricity penetration, (6) hydrogen transportation costs, and (7) spatial variation in capital costs. This study uses an in-house tool (Hydrogen Economy Assessment & Resource Tool, HEART) [3], developed in an earlier study and advanced further in the present study, to find the minimal cost hydrogen roadmap for ASEAN to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. A decarbonization profile is assumed for this purpose. Based on the assumed declining renewable electricity cost profiles expected from technological advances, this hydrogen roadmap determines the optimal hydrogen production technology mix (under various resource constraint scenarios), production locations, and supply-chain network. It has been shown that ASEAN’s renewable energy potential is sufficient to fully meet the total power demand of the member countries if a regional power grid is put in place and active energy storage and management is employed. The region has surplus renewable electricity potential to produce green hydrogen even after meeting the total power demand. With realistic limits on the availability of biomass, it is not possible to meet the carbon emission reduction targets with hydrogen produced only from natural gas and biomass (with carbon capture and sequestration) beyond 2045, even if natural gas is unlimited. It is found that reduction in upstream supply chain emissions with time will allow more time for green hydrogen to attain cost parity with blue hydrogen. Green hydrogen can be cost effective compared to blue hydrogen produced from LNG in the early years when the hydrogen demand is low, as it is not impacted by economies of scale. Using hydrogen FCVs to decarbonize the transport sector will inflate the average cost of hydrogen, due to costs associated with compression of hydrogen to 700 bar. Prioritizing energy security and sustainability has minimal incremental costs compared to importing LNG for blue hydrogen production. Optimal green hydrogen production locations in ASEAN include Myanmar and Cambodia, as they have the lowest renewables levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in the region. Malaysia and Indonesia, although endowed with solar energy, use biomass resources or LNG for hydrogen production instead. This is due to relatively higher solar LCOE. It is found to be cost optimal for Singapore to import hydrogen rather than produce hydrogen using imported LNG. ASEAN’s hydrogen economy is expected to evolve from centralized in the early years to one that is decentralized in the later years, due to the large share of production cost of the total landed cost in the early years. Ammonia as a hydrogen carrier is found to be cost-optimal for Myanmar because it is located more than 2000 km away from most demand sites. In summary, this study develops a holistic and comprehensive hydrogen roadmap to decarbonize ASEAN by 2050.

[1] A. Vidinopoulos, J. Whale, and U. Fuentes Hutfilter, “Assessing the technical potential of ASEAN countries to achieve 100% renewable energy supply,” Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, vol. 42, p. 100878, Dec. 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.seta.2020.100878.

[2] T. Ahmed, S. Mekhilef, R. Shah, and N. Mithulananthan, “Investigation into transmission options for cross-border power trading in ASEAN power grid,” Energy Policy, vol. 108, pp. 91–101, Sep. 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.05.020.

[3] X. Hong et al., “Hydrogen Economy Assessment & Resource Tool (HEART): A python-based tool for ASEAN H2 roadmap study,” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2022.05.036.