Indirect Effects of Bioenergy: International Standards and Science

Indirect effects of bioenergy: international standards and science

Maggie R. Davis1, Fred Ghatala2, Diego Goldin3, Keith L. Kline1

1Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge Tennessee, USA

2Waterfall Group, Vancouver British Colombia, Canada

3The Argentine Standards Institute (IRAM), Buenos Aires, Argentina

Key words: markets, food security, land use change, sustainability, International Organization for Standardization

In 2009 the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) created a project committee to develop an international standard to provide guidance on Sustainability Criteria for Bioenergy. Four working groups were assigned specific tasks. This paper summarizes the results of the working group created to critically assess and present results on “indirect effects,” beginning with the topic of food security impacts from bioenergy production. From May 2011 to July 2013, this group reviewed and critically assessed over 160 publications on indirect effects (e.g., approaches to model indirect land use change) published between 2004 and 2013. The working group delivered a total of four reports, which were presented to the larger project committee to guide the development of the standard based on consensus. The report submitted in February 2012 contained a consensus statement by the working group members on the current state of science of indirect effects, which guided discussions within the project committee. The report highlighted that the science on indirect effects is “nascent and rapidly evolving” and summarized the conclusions and recommendations, based on the literature reviewed and the expertise of the work group, as follows:

“(T)he state of science, in terms of evidence based research, is inconclusive or contradictory regarding indirect effects of bioenergy. … An economic operator should not be held responsible for indirect effects and variables that are outside the operator’s control.” “Recent modeling (of indirect effects) has highlighted potential impacts as well as the high variability in results though much of the modeling thus far has relied on assumptions that may not be supported by empirical evidence. To date, there has been limited causal analysis to support assumptions underlying indirect effects modeling.” “There needs to be equitable treatment of direct and indirect effects for any energy options being analyzed including baseline fuel(s) that would be replaced by proposed bioenergy sources.”

This paper is authored by the co-convenor and secretariat of this working group and for the first time presents its findings outside of an ISO context. In this paper the authors discuss the process to reach the above conclusions and the use of ILUC in other standards, provide a literature review based on contributions by experts participating in the working group, and offer some conclusions about indirect effects as they relate to bioenergy production.

Financial Support: IRAM, ORNL, U.S. Department of Energy, Waterfall Group