Uncertainty Quantification and Error Propagation in the Enthalpy and Entropy of Surface Reactions Arising from a Single DFT Functional

Accounting for parametric uncertainty in models is essential for quantifying the models’ predictive ability. Recently, approaches have been introduced to estimate parametric uncertainty in kinetic models while accounting for correlations among energy parameters. However, correlations have been estimated indirectly and correlations in entropies have not been accounted for. For surface-catalyzed microkinetic models of >C2 (more than two carbon-containing) molecules, which consist of thousands of reaction steps and intermediate surface species, first-principles density functional theory (DFT) is costly, and thus, estimation of thermochemistry and reaction barriers requires surrogate methods of DFT, such as group additivity and Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi relationships, respectively. For such parametrization, model uncertainty is unclear. This work develops a framework to overcome these gaps using group additivity and a single DFT functional. We estimate correlations in parameters of kinetic models and quantify uncertainty for thermochemistry, reaction barriers, reaction paths, and ultimately reaction rates, accounting also for the contribution of entropic uncertainty. The approach is illustrated on propane combustion and ethane oxidative dehydrogenation reactions.